Friday, August 09, 2019

BREXIT Planning

Subtitle: October 31 2019
Marcus had already made some plans for BREXIT#1,  that is the one that was assured to have happened on March 29th 2019.

As all British people know it has still not happened, and rather we now have a new British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson who prima facia will result in Britain leaving the EC on Thursday October 31st 2019 without any EC deal

I previously outlined personal BREXIT strategies here

But today I'll outline what factors will be best placed to help British people immediately survive in a post BREXIT environment

The Deal is No
The strategy is necessary because a NO deal BREXIT is now almost certainly the outcome.

- The base point is that even if you believe the 'Sunlit Uplands' BREXIT rhetoric, you cannot seriously expect the uplift to take place in anything less than 2 years and most would argue considerably longer.

- The estimates are for social, political, and business disruption around the time of the actual BREXIT

- The UK will fallback to WTO rules.  A brief BBC article

- The GBP Great British Pound may become less great.  Perhaps BP?  consequently exports will be cheaper and any imports more expensive,  plus the additional WTO tariff changes on top

I predict the GBP to USD will fall below 1.18 by October 31st. Trading USD?, just hold, hold, hold, until BREXIT. Others agree.  A similar trend for all currencies including the most important for us the Euro.

- Any forthcoming US deal is unlikely for October 31st but should anything be arranged it leads to a reduction is NHS services, and more processed food from the US to the UK.

- Should a UK election be undertaken, there is very likely to be chaotic voting with the 2 major parties Labour and Conservative suffering huge defeats from a Popularist alternative.  This is arguably more dangerous than BREXIT

- I expect house prices to fall Nationwide but particularly strongly in London post BREXIT.  This is an opportunity for renters who would become first time buyers.

Todays Actions

Private Medial Care, or ideally please just don't get sick or ill

Ensure your holidays abroad in 2019 take place before October 31st

Consider moving UK funds abroad or into other currencies to better preserve their value post BREXIT

If you have no Children, Employment, or immediate UK ties then a temporary relocation outside of the UK before the BREXIT date is advisable.  Return when any trauma has subsided.  

For those remaining in the UK I would suggest  (and I am absolutely serious) to stockpile 1 months essential foodstuffs ahead of BREXIT date. Even Mark Carney says so 

Good News

There is absolutely none.  Except that the Sunlit Uplands that may become visible in say 3 years

UK BREXIT negotiation strategy

Links & Counterpoints
GBPUSD FX Forecast
UK No Deal Action Plan
UK Food Imports

Fresh Food trading
Freight Delays forecast

The EU will suffer more than UK
Don't Panic Nov 1 Holiday proposed
The UK Selects Reverse