Tuesday, December 29, 2015

Technical Speculation


Pocketnow: Rumours

Subtitle: Wait for IT

This is a grumpy post about always fanciful and often uninformed speculation that currently runs wild in the Computer and Electronics arenas

One of the worst segments is perhaps Smartphones where today of the many hundred articles I read daily I can normally guarantee at least 5 articles on Smartphone futures.

JUST STOP IT!

6 Month Cycling
The Smartphone industry from major manufacturer moves towards a 6 month update cycle.  So staying /on top/ in the Phone world is usually reserved to extreme fanboys or tech journalists (assuming they are receiving a long term loaner).

So given that the median time between your Smartphone obsolence is therefore 6/2 = 3 months, do you really care what fanciful mockup is dangled in front of your nose?  No, not really

License to Mock (up)
There are countless examples of Design Houses publishing 'design studies' or 'concept design' of future Smartphones.  How many of these are based on any fact?  Or just the whim of a spotty kid in front of a powerful design package?


Engineering Hell
I feel sorry for the Engineers.  The actual Hardware and Software guys who have put decades of experience into producing excellence.  Not trivial, because working within space and power constraints for mobiles is challenging.   Whilst you are working hard in secret to product a workable and reliable and manufacturable next gen design,  you get no-hopers with probably no connection even to any Smartphone company splatting the internet with 'concepts' that they can design in an afternoon.  Where is the Engineers glory and recognition?


The Big Shows
There are two big Consumer shows each year relevant to Smartphones

(Obviously I am not counting Apple who feel they are too important to observe any Industry convention)


CES  (Consumer Electronics Show)
January in Las Vegas

Mobile World Congress
February in Barcleona


So apart Google who announce in 4th Quarter to ship before Christmas, and update only yearly, most serious Smartphone vendors announce at or around the time of the above shows.


Smartphone Centric
Already the Smartphone and not the Desktop or Laptop computer is at the centre of most consumers Computing and Internet experience.

With Microsoft developments like Continuum  the Smartphone is ready and poised to takeover the desktop space in future times for most non power-users.

So yes the Smartphone is critically important, which accounts for the stream of uniformed drivel that is websites devoted to Smartphone futures and rumours,   endless renders of possible phones,   spec speculation ad nauseum,  and release date lottery.

But all of this web content is merely dis-information, a sort of Internet Static that distracts you, and forms an irritating background noise, preventing from focusing on the device you have, rather that the one that may never be built.

Summary
- Understand your tech industry segment
- Understand it's release cycle
- Understand the design, prototype,  test, manufacture, test, release cycle
- Don't speculate, don't read or forward speculation
- Live and enjoy life in the technical present, not in the technical future.





Queen: Don't Stop Me

(or in the case of the Speculators,  please do stop yourselves!)