Sunday, July 12, 2015

Sunday Financial Sermon: A message to Alexis but mainly Angela

The Specials: A Message to You [Greece]

NB :%s/Rudy/Greece/*

I have spent over an hour this Sunday pouring over the publicity releases from Eurogroup where the European Financial Ministers were unable to reach a conclusion on the 3rd Greek Bailout.

The latest seems to be that Alexis Tsipras now has until cob (close of business) Monday to agree the terms they have presented.

If you recall the YES/ NO [bailout 3] decision was supposed to 100%  (or 150% in footballer speak) be decided by cob Sunday July 12th 2015.

And, yet again,  and I mean for about the 30th or more time, Eurogrop have been saying "Greece you must agree to X conditions by date Y" only to have date Y come and go without agreement.

So how much more Money then?
Bailout-3 estimates are rising by the second and make the initially requested additional 15 billion Euros seem like chump change ....

10 billion Euro already paid in the last 24 hours!

+90 billion Euro (or thereabouts)  for this stage 3 of the recovery plan

What does Eurogroup stipulate today?

Remind me about Debt Restructuring
(Return OF vs return ON capital)

Debt restructuring in this context means

- We won't pay back everything that we have borrowed

- You can forget about the interest

- But cheer up you are getting something back, we might give you back nothing, and yes, this does sound like a threat

Debt Restructuring is not Debt Consolidation.  In the latter you change the way you pay back your debt, perhaps to a single debtor (who has taken on all the debts from multiple parties) and on different interest and term to the original loans.  With Debt Consolidation you need to pay everything back, with what Greece would call /Restructuring/ they mean, lets pay hardly anything back.

In a nutshell it's

a) Can we only part pay you back our existing loans

b) By the way, we need you to lend us a lot more

Dear Angela:
Citizens throughout the non Greek EC (as opposed to Politicians) are  looking to you to stand firm and not give way to Debt Restructuring, please don't let us down

Dear Alexis:
Your election mandate and your recent referendum were quite clear that you would not accept any draconian terms from the EC.  Therefore your choice is clear, don't accept the terms proposed.   Please don't let us down.