Wednesday, July 01, 2015

Greek Numbers




This is a minimalist post about numbers.  Greek numbers.

But spoiler alert, there is no good news other that the Soft Cell video above which I rather like.

Greece has a total population of just over 11 million people. We'll call it 12 millions

1 billion Euros = 1,000 million euros

Greece, the country owes about 320 billion Euro = 26667 euros per person!

This is what it looks like:



In 1 week Greek people withdrew 9 billion Euro  from cashpoints = 750 Euros for every man, woman and child.
(This only worked because it was backed by the EC ELA Emergency Liquid assistance)

By July 1 Greece needed to repay a 1.6 billion euro loan. That is 133 Euros per person

The EC is willing to give Greece another 7 billion Euros if it meet some further conditions.  That is about 580 Euros per person.  But the Greek government said it would not meet those conditions and stated on June 30th that it would not repay the 1.6 billion Euro loan.

At 20.00, June 30th, just 4 hours before July 1st, Alex Tsipras amazingly asked for an additional 29.1 billion Euro loan . Now really, you couldn't make this stuff up could you?







And from my Perspective

LTCM
In 1998 Long Term Capital Management lost over 4 billion USD leading to a behind the scenes financial crisis that was bailed out by neighbouring financial institutions. 


LTCM staff famously included Myron Scholes a Nobel prize winning economist whose Black-Scholes model provided a breakthrough for Options pricing. 



Lehmans

Lehman brothers a 100 year old plus and respected American financial institution declared bankruptcy in September 2008 because nobody stepped up to bail them out.

Lehmans woes were variously linked to the Subprime Mortgage Crisis  where money was fraudulently lent to those individuals.


Ironically from 2009+ many European Governments worldwide including America, UK, Switzerland but excluding Germany have been /printing money/ effectively devaluing the savings of Private individuals, whilst at the same time keeping interest rates low.


The result is that this time it's not Individuals but whole countries that have borrowed beyond their means.  And hence we arrive to Greece.


I would comment that the availability of a seemingly almost infinite supply of almost 0 percent  money is attractive to anybody and any country, however this does not make it right to take it.  Greece should not blame the lender for offering this bargain finance and then also blame them (ECB and others) when this financing is withdrawn.




Greece

At 00.00 On July 1, 2015 Greece joined a very disreputable club



Greece defaulted on its IMF loan.

Statista shows it graphically this way, and note that 6.2 Billion Euros are due between today and the close of 2015.  A sum that Greece can simply not repay.

Greece has talked about debt restructuring.  This means bluntly that it was not to repay the money that it has borrowed and requests that debtors /let it off/ the majority of the repayment capital.

IMHO it's a total disgrace.


Soft Cell: Numbers 12"
Gerry Rice IMF makes a statement