Saturday, August 31, 2013

Is it time to Sell Yet


I'm Leaving Las Vegas
Lights so bright
Palm sweat, blackjack
On a Saturday night
Leaving Las Vegas
Leaving for good, for good
I'm leaving for good
I'm leaving for good

When is it time to buy (and stay) or sell (and leave) your property?

One's decision is usually a classic example of confirmation bias. This bias affects other purchases like your Stock and Bond portfolios.

I categorise people's minds into DOWNER and UPPER. 

Prices going down

DOWNER: Prices are dropping, I best sell my portfolio

UPPER: Prices are dropping, time to buy a bargain

Prices going up
DOWNER: Prices are rising, cannot last long, sell now and take profits

UPPER: Prices are rising, I thought so, buy more now for instant profit.

So you can see that your reaction to a change in asset values up/ down can promote 2 opposite reactions.   We need another way!

In the UK property market I would instead start by consulting a historical price guide like this

And for Stocks, well: intense and varied Internet research of course.  My conclusion for September: Only an idiot would buy [or even Short] in this War torn, risky month.

UK Postcode Property trends
September stocks example
October Debt Ceiling
Sheryl Leaving Las Vegas acoustic