Tuesday, February 26, 2013

Did you say 2020 or 2030

Ah the shifting sands of indecision.

I read some Monday's back  about the Registers reporting on Hydrogen cars by 2030

Now granted the Register is hardly an authoritative source, but I had been prepared by listening to the 29th January Business Daily podcast on Hydrogen futures.

It's not very likely.  

But the point of this banter is to relate a distrubing, worldwide, kicking the can down the road trend

  • Pick a global problem
  • One that needs international cooperation and that is non trivial
  • Determine a date far enough in the future that is attainable
  • Attainable if we start now and have cooperation
  • Do nothing now
  • Sometime later, kick the can down the road and reset the dates.

At the turn of the century the preferred future date for the implementation of significant, shared global projects was 2020.   

Now a decade of so later the fantasy future date is reset to guess:  2030

The actors on the stage principally follow this methodology
  • We don't really understand enough to solve the problem
  • But we are adept at bringing in high consultancy wages to plan the solution
  • Typically the 80%:20% rule is employed. Practically nothing needs to be achieved initially, but a supposed exponential ramp up is assumed towards project end  (80% of the work gets done in the last 20% of time)
  • For the first 80% of the time then, highly paid planners, organisers, managers, marketers, well can play the system.
  • When failure looms we will have a vast repertoire of external players who prevented us from achieving our goals.

And why does it all matter?

Because these global projects are important, and perhaps if initiatives to curb pollution, carbon production,  energy waste,  water production are not handled well it will be our own future and not just that of our children that we will suffer.

20% renewable by 2020

High Speed 2  2030

Hydrogen Fuel Cars